Modelling: a review of systems and approaches for vector-transmitted and other parasitic diseases in developing countries

During the last 30 years, modelling has increasingly played an important role in improving the efficiency of agricultural production systems. In the case of vector-borne diseases, most of the approaches have focused around calculus methods to describe the dynamics of the interactions of host and parasite, or empirical simulation models to describe the parasite/vector behaviour in relation to environmental conditions. This review gives a brief tour of venous modelling techniques and their attributes. The techniques include the 'spherical cow' approach, analytical methods, simulation and statistical modelling. Within the agricultural community there is an expectation that models will become available as 'products' for a wide range of decision-making and problem-solving tasks. If the expectation is to be realized, the context in which models will be used and delivered will be important. The opportunity for creating information models that combine modelling techniques with the heuristic knowledge of experts and relevant disease information will be examined.