Forecasting temperature records in PEI, Canada

Historical temperature data from the Canadian Atlantic province of Prince Edward Island is analyzed over the period from April 1913 to July 2013 in order to develop time series models that have the ability to produce accurate forecasting of minimum and maximum monthly average temperatures. In this paper, we study the statistical properties of these temperature series and we use alternative statistical testing approaches to identify the type of seasonal pattern in the data. A parsimonious seasonal ARIMA model is determined for each series and the predicted future temperature records for the region are presented.