Estimates of within-herd incidence rates of Mycobacterium bovis in Canadian cattle and cervids between 1985 and 1994

We analysed the individual-animal data from six of the nine outbreaks of tuberculosis in Canadian cattle and cervids from 1985 to 1994. A 'positive/reactor' animal was one which had either a positive culture or a positive or suspicious reaction on a mid-cervical, comparative cervical, or gross or histopathological test for tuberculosis. Individual-animal data were collected only for herds which had one or more positive/reactor animals. Data were collected from the outbreak records in the Regional or District offices of Agriculture and Agri-food Canada's Animal and Plant Health Directorate. The within-herd spread of Mycobacterium bovis was studied by determining the most-likely date at which the herd was first exposed to M. bovis and the number of reactions which had developed by the time the herd was investigated. The animal-time units at risk in the herd were probably overestimated, resulting in conservative estimates of the within-herd incidence rates. Negative-binomial regression was used to investigate factors which might have influenced the within-herd spread of tuberculosis. Increasing age appeared to be a risk factor for being a positive/reactor animal. When compared to animals 0-12 months old, animals 13-24 months old had an incidence rate ratio (IRR) of 7.6, while animals >24 months old had an IRR of 10.4 (p=0.009). Actual and predicted incidence rates for tuberculosis in mature (>24 months old) animals were calculated. Actual and predicted incidence rates were similar for cervids, within an outbreak. There was more variability between actual and predicted rates in the dairy and beef animals. In the one outbreak (Ontario) where there were positive/reactor cervid, dairy and beef herds, the actual incidence rate for cervids (IR=9.3 cases per 100 animal-years) was almost twice that of dairy cattle (IR=5.0) and three times that of beef cattle (IR=3.1).